KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

30%

30%

22%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

AIFSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.30u · AIFS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	48.7%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	9.9%	19.4%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.2%	4.5%	0.6%	—	9.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.4%	9.3%	18.9%	—	5.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.0%	0.8%	11.4%	—	4.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	10.4%	7.5%	5.1%	—	3.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	6.1%	1.6%	—	1.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.1%	0.0%	4.1%	—	1.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	1.6%	—	0.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.5%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	1.9%	2.4%	—	0.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	2.1%	2.1%	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.7%	1.4%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%	1.0%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	0.9%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.8%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.6%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	70.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	68.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	64.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 17 · 11:14 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗