KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

30%

30%

22%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

AIFSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.30u · AIFS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	27.0%	28.5%	29.3%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	27.0%	28.5%	29.3%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	27.0%	28.5%	29.3%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	24.6%	28.5%	29.3%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	24.6%	28.5%	29.2%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	29.2%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	29.2%	17.5%	36.0%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	29.2%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	24.6%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	22.5%	17.5%	38.7%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	22.5%	21.9%	38.7%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	30.0%	21.9%	38.7%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	30.0%	21.9%	38.7%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	8.5%	29.5%	30.0%	21.9%	38.7%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	4.7%	29.5%	30.0%	21.9%	38.7%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	4.7%	29.5%	30.0%	21.9%	38.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	70.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	68.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	64.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 17 · 11:14 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗