KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

32%

26%

21%

14%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u

HRESNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.20u · HRES −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	7.2%	15.1%	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.2%	3.1%	0.4%	—	6.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.2%	6.6%	14.4%	—	3.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.3%	0.5%	8.1%	—	2.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.2%	5.1%	3.3%	—	2.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.0%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.2%	3.9%	0.9%	—	1.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	2.5%	—	0.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	1.2%	0.9%	—	0.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.7%	1.0%	1.3%	—	0.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	1.1%	1.1%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	70.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	71.3°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	70.1°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	67.7°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗