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KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
42%
ICON
32%
WN2
26%
AIFS
21%
HRES
14%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u
VS
HRESNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.20u · HRES −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.0% · 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.5% · 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 13.6% · 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:0009-17 10:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:0021.4%42.0%26.5%13.6%32.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%75.0°F5.4°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%73.6°F4.5°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
ICON32%70.0°F9.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%71.3°F5.1°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single21%70.1°F5.5°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%67.7°F6.2°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗