KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

78%

70%

70%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.7¢Risks 82.65u

ICONNO 17.3¢Risks 17.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.35u · ICON −17.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	73.6%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	88.0%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	67.8%	62.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	62.7%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	90.9%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	90.5%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	90.5%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	90.5%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	90.5%	96.7%	85.4%	72.0%	86.8%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	90.5%	96.7%	85.4%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	90.5%	95.9%	85.4%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	90.5%	95.9%	85.4%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	90.5%	95.9%	85.4%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	93.1%	95.9%	85.3%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	93.1%	95.9%	85.3%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	86.8%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	75.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	75.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	75.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	93.1%	89.4%	85.3%	74.3%	75.0%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	93.6%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	75.0%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	61.1%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	61.1%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	61.1%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	92.8%	89.4%	85.3%	80.8%	61.1%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	94.5%	89.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	94.5%	89.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	94.5%	89.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	94.5%	89.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	94.5%	97.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	94.5%	97.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	94.5%	97.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	94.5%	97.4%	85.3%	78.1%	61.1%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	94.2%	97.1%	85.1%	78.1%	60.1%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	94.2%	97.1%	85.1%	78.1%	60.1%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	60.1%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	60.1%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	94.2%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	85.1%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	69.7%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	69.7%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	69.7%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	69.7%	78.1%	69.6%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	69.7%	78.1%	69.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	68.4°F	1.9°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗