KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

78%

70%

70%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.7¢Risks 82.65u

ICONNO 17.3¢Risks 17.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.35u · ICON −17.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	79.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	56.9%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	8.5%	56.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	81.6%	67.7%	28.1%	—	54.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	79.0%	65.7%	60.1%	—	60.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	41.7%	66.3%	59.8%	—	53.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	61.0%	67.0%	55.6%	—	59.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	2.6%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	46.7%	59.1%	62.3%	—	58.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	57.6%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	80.4%	71.6%	57.0%	—	56.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	76.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	66.1%	67.0%	62.7%	—	60.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	50.9%	73.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	55.8%	75.3%	62.4%	0.1%	66.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	63.7%	75.9%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	66.0%	73.2%	69.7%	—	73.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	76.3%	73.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	72.7%	76.2%	75.3%	—	72.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	63.3%	79.4%	0.0%	—	75.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	73.0%	90.0%	83.2%	53.5%	80.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	88.6%	89.8%	84.0%	—	83.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	92.5%	84.1%	0.0%	85.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	90.2%	91.3%	74.1%	—	80.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	90.5%	92.1%	83.5%	0.0%	81.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	93.8%	90.8%	86.8%	—	86.8%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	95.6%	92.7%	91.1%	76.6%	85.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	94.8%	95.2%	90.1%	—	80.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	93.9%	95.9%	89.8%	73.7%	79.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	95.9%	95.1%	94.2%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	68.4°F	1.9°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	67.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗