KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

76%

46%

42%

32%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

EPSNO 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.50u · EPS −38.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	44.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	30.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	4.3%	43.3%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	70.8%	54.2%	17.5%	—	40.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	67.0%	51.5%	45.6%	—	45.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	27.7%	51.5%	44.7%	—	38.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	45.2%	51.6%	39.7%	—	43.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.9%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	30.8%	42.5%	45.8%	—	41.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	40.7%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	66.2%	55.2%	39.6%	—	38.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	60.7%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	48.2%	49.1%	44.5%	—	42.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	32.6%	55.7%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	36.6%	57.7%	43.2%	0.0%	47.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	44.0%	58.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	45.9%	54.1%	50.0%	—	54.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	57.4%	54.2%	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	52.2%	56.5%	55.5%	—	52.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	41.0%	60.0%	0.0%	—	54.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	51.2%	75.8%	64.8%	31.0%	60.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	72.7%	74.7%	65.3%	—	64.1%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	75.4%	79.2%	64.6%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	74.1%	76.2%	50.0%	—	57.7%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	73.9%	77.0%	61.9%	0.0%	59.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	79.9%	73.5%	66.2%	—	66.2%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	83.7%	76.6%	73.2%	50.0%	62.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	80.8%	81.9%	70.2%	—	54.5%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	77.4%	82.9%	68.3%	43.7%	51.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	81.9%	79.7%	77.2%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	67.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	67.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.2°F	2.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗