KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

76%

46%

42%

32%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

EPSNO 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.50u · EPS −38.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	76.9%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	76.9%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	83.9%	73.2%	74.8%	53.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	83.1%	73.2%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	83.1%	73.2%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	83.1%	73.2%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	83.1%	73.2%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	83.1%	73.2%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	83.1%	75.9%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	83.1%	75.9%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	83.1%	75.9%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	85.8%	75.9%	74.8%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	85.8%	75.9%	74.7%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	79.4%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	50.6%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	50.6%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	50.6%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	85.8%	77.1%	74.7%	72.2%	50.6%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	82.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	50.6%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	61.4%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	61.4%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	61.4%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	80.6%	77.1%	74.7%	58.9%	61.4%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	82.4%	77.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	82.4%	77.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	82.4%	77.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	82.4%	77.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	82.4%	77.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	82.4%	86.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	82.4%	86.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	82.4%	86.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	77.9%	86.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	77.9%	86.1%	74.7%	54.8%	61.4%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	63.0%	50.0%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	63.0%	50.0%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	63.0%	50.0%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	69.5%	46.6%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	69.5%	46.6%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	69.5%	46.6%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	89.5%	67.8%	48.9%	69.5%	46.6%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	90.5%	67.8%	48.9%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	90.5%	67.8%	48.9%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	90.5%	67.8%	48.9%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	90.5%	67.8%	48.9%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	90.5%	71.9%	45.5%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	90.5%	71.9%	45.5%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	90.5%	71.9%	45.5%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	88.8%	71.9%	45.5%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	88.9%	71.8%	45.5%	67.8%	47.7%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	45.5%	67.8%	47.7%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	45.5%	67.8%	47.7%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	45.5%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	43.3%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	43.3%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	88.9%	33.8%	43.3%	67.8%	46.6%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	89.3%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	90.2%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	90.2%	33.8%	43.3%	73.6%	46.6%
2026-09-25T03:04:07+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	36.2%	75.6%	56.7%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	36.2%	75.6%	56.7%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	36.2%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	89.1%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	93.8%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	93.8%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	93.8%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	93.8%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	93.8%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	93.8%	24.9%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	93.8%	24.9%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	93.8%	24.9%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	91.6%	24.9%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	91.5%	24.9%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	55.8%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	40.7%	75.6%	46.5%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	42.3%	75.6%	46.5%
2026-09-25T18:08:39+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	42.3%	75.6%	46.5%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	91.5%	31.5%	42.3%	75.6%	46.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	67.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	67.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	66.2°F	2.7°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗