KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

64%

52%

39%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

EPSNO 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.50u · EPS −32.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	56.3%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	9.9%	54.7%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	46.5%	36.9%	8.2%	—	40.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	70.3%	53.6%	47.1%	—	42.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	53.8%	57.6%	39.4%	—	36.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	15.9%	56.4%	54.8%	—	40.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	4.7%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	59.1%	58.3%	43.4%	—	45.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	34.2%	60.2%	—	—	45.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	39.6%	57.0%	51.7%	—	52.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	53.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	54.6%	52.8%	57.3%	—	62.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	53.8%	52.8%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	49.0%	51.0%	68.7%	—	64.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	52.0%	58.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	55.1%	57.2%	74.1%	—	67.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	71.2%	58.4%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	76.2%	60.8%	73.6%	—	71.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	70.4%	59.0%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	71.0%	61.5%	63.7%	—	63.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	83.3%	66.4%	70.7%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	75.4%	72.4%	71.3%	0.0%	68.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	69.8%	73.1%	70.9%	—	63.9%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	69.3%	76.0%	76.0%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	72.4%	76.8%	78.9%	—	68.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	77.8%	75.5%	78.8%	52.9%	72.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	79.8%	67.5%	78.7%	—	66.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	71.0%	77.4%	78.6%	53.2%	68.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	87.7%	74.6%	81.9%	—	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
ICON	52%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗