KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

64%

52%

39%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

EPSNO 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.50u · EPS −32.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:07+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	56.7%	78.8%	66.5%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	56.7%	78.8%	66.5%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	56.7%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	94.3%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	93.0%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	93.0%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	93.0%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	93.0%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	93.0%	39.9%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	93.0%	33.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	93.0%	33.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	93.0%	33.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	92.7%	33.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	92.7%	33.4%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	63.3%	78.8%	60.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	63.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T18:08:39+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	92.7%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	59.3%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	63.8%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	63.8%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	94.8%	39.2%	63.8%	78.8%	52.3%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	95.8%	39.2%	63.8%	78.8%	52.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
ICON	52%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗