KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

75%

51%

47%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 72.7¢Risks 72.70u

EPSNO 27.3¢Risks 27.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.30u · EPS −27.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:21+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	79.7%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	79.7%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	79.7%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	70.8%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	70.8%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	70.8%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	82.6%	84.1%	73.1%	70.6%	70.8%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	81.9%	84.1%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	81.9%	84.1%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	81.9%	84.1%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	81.9%	84.1%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	81.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	81.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	81.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	81.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.8%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	87.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	87.9%	88.7%	73.1%	74.2%	70.7%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	74.2%	62.0%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	74.2%	62.0%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	74.2%	62.0%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	73.7%	50.8%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	73.7%	50.8%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	73.7%	50.8%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	88.3%	82.0%	83.0%	73.7%	50.8%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	88.6%	82.0%	83.0%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	88.6%	82.0%	83.0%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	88.6%	82.0%	83.0%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	88.6%	82.0%	83.0%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	88.6%	91.1%	77.7%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	88.6%	91.1%	77.7%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	88.6%	91.1%	77.7%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	85.4%	91.1%	77.7%	78.6%	50.8%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	85.5%	91.1%	76.9%	78.6%	50.0%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	76.9%	78.6%	50.0%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	76.9%	78.6%	50.0%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	76.9%	78.6%	55.0%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	82.0%	78.6%	55.0%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	82.0%	78.6%	55.0%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	85.5%	58.3%	82.0%	78.6%	55.0%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	82.0%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	82.0%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	82.0%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	82.0%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	82.0%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	79.9%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	79.9%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	86.9%	58.3%	79.9%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	91.9%	58.3%	79.9%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	91.9%	58.3%	79.9%	66.2%	55.0%
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	76.1%	43.4%	86.1%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	76.1%	43.2%	86.1%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	76.1%	43.2%	86.1%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	76.1%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	76.1%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	76.1%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	74.7%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	76.3%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	76.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	76.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	85.5%	78.2%	76.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	85.5%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	91.5%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:07+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.3%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	84.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	94.3%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	95.1%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	95.1%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	95.1%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	95.1%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	95.1%	43.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	95.1%	35.7%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	95.1%	35.7%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	95.1%	35.7%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	89.3%	35.7%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	89.3%	36.0%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	87.2%	81.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	87.2%	81.3%	17.5%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	89.4%	81.3%	17.5%
2026-09-25T18:08:39+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	89.4%	81.3%	17.5%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	89.3%	44.2%	89.4%	81.3%	17.5%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	89.4%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	89.4%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	89.4%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	89.4%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	89.4%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	87.9%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	17.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	88.8%	75.9%	34.6%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	91.7%	75.9%	34.6%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	91.7%	75.9%	34.6%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00	92.1%	44.2%	91.7%	75.9%	34.6%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	95.1%	44.2%	91.7%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	95.1%	44.2%	91.7%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	95.1%	44.2%	91.7%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	95.1%	44.2%	91.7%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	95.1%	44.2%	91.7%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	95.1%	41.8%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	95.1%	41.8%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	95.1%	41.8%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	97.1%	41.8%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	97.1%	41.9%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	34.6%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	97.1%	47.3%	91.6%	79.6%	51.1%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	97.3%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	98.1%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	98.1%	47.3%	91.6%	74.8%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗