KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

75%

51%

47%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 72.7¢Risks 72.70u

EPSNO 27.3¢Risks 27.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +27.30u · EPS −27.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	2.3%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	33.6%	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	77.6%	52.8%	6.9%	—	54.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	62.9%	74.0%	62.3%	—	59.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	68.4%	78.9%	68.4%	—	59.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	57.1%	71.9%	67.7%	—	55.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	4.9%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	45.8%	71.4%	60.7%	—	55.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	53.4%	69.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	38.8%	62.9%	71.6%	—	58.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	22.9%	72.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	43.6%	60.0%	26.6%	—	53.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	76.2%	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	69.6%	67.0%	73.7%	—	66.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	65.6%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	72.4%	31.2%	78.1%	—	62.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	73.8%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	78.7%	77.0%	66.9%	—	59.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	34.6%	82.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	19.9%	85.3%	68.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	21.6%	84.0%	65.3%	—	56.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	48.8%	87.0%	77.3%	1.2%	63.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	67.5%	78.1%	75.2%	—	61.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	68.1%	77.0%	76.0%	60.6%	61.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	88.9%	81.8%	76.8%	—	71.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	84.6%	85.4%	81.8%	69.5%	80.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	90.8%	89.5%	76.4%	—	79.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	92.9%	92.3%	84.8%	82.9%	78.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	94.7%	88.5%	85.9%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	68.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗