KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

69%

45%

24%

14%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

EPSNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.80u · EPS −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	17.6%	—	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	59.1%	32.3%	2.2%	—	34.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	41.3%	53.6%	40.6%	—	37.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	46.2%	59.1%	46.2%	—	37.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	33.7%	49.2%	44.4%	—	32.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	1.2%	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	23.2%	47.5%	36.1%	—	30.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	28.8%	44.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	17.2%	37.1%	46.5%	—	33.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	7.8%	46.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	19.6%	33.0%	9.4%	—	27.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	41.3%	38.5%	46.1%	—	37.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	36.3%	21.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	42.8%	10.3%	50.0%	—	32.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.7%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.9%	46.7%	35.1%	—	28.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	10.7%	53.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	4.2%	57.0%	34.1%	—	19.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	4.5%	53.6%	30.4%	—	22.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	16.6%	57.4%	42.6%	0.1%	27.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	30.2%	42.3%	38.5%	—	24.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	29.5%	39.4%	38.1%	23.0%	24.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	56.9%	44.4%	37.7%	—	31.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	47.1%	48.5%	42.8%	28.0%	41.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	57.5%	54.5%	33.8%	—	38.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	60.9%	59.4%	43.7%	40.6%	34.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	64.5%	48.4%	43.4%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	72.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	70.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	68.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗