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KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
91%
WN2
69%
HRES
45%
ICON
24%
EPS
14%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u
VS
EPSNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.80u · EPS −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.1% · 2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00IFS HRES: 44.7% · 2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:0009-27 03:1909-27 05:3509-27 07:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%20.6%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%20.6%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%24.2%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%24.2%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%24.2%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:0090.8%13.6%69.1%44.7%24.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single91%75.9°F4.1°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 269%72.2°F3.4°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-09-27 02:00Pending
IFS HRES45%70.0°F3.7°F2026-09-26 12:00Pending
National Blend43%70.1°F2.2°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
ICON24%68.1°F3.4°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%67.3°F2.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗