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KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
65%
WN2
46%
EPS
42%
ICON
40%
HRES
39%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u
VS
HRESNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.70u · HRES −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.5% · 2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.5% · 2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.5% · 2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.5% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.5% · 2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:0009-20 07:4509-20 09:1609-20 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:0065.4%42.4%46.5%39.2%40.3%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:0065.4%42.4%46.5%39.2%40.3%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:0065.4%42.4%46.5%39.2%40.3%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:0065.4%42.4%46.5%39.2%40.3%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:0065.4%42.4%46.5%39.2%40.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single65%73.7°F5.5°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%72.0°F5.1°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%71.0°F5.6°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%71.0°F2.6°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
ICON40%69.1°F9.8°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%69.8°F6.2°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗