KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

46%

42%

40%

39%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

HRESNO 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.70u · HRES −47.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	13.5%	—	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	52.1%	26.3%	1.4%	—	28.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	34.3%	46.4%	33.7%	—	31.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	38.7%	51.5%	38.7%	—	30.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	26.8%	41.3%	36.7%	—	25.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.7%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	17.3%	39.3%	28.6%	—	23.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	22.0%	36.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	12.2%	29.1%	37.9%	—	25.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	5.0%	37.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	25.1%	6.1%	—	20.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	40.6%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	32.1%	29.6%	36.6%	—	28.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	27.4%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	33.0%	6.4%	39.8%	—	23.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	33.5%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	38.2%	36.1%	25.5%	—	19.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	6.3%	42.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	2.2%	45.4%	24.2%	—	12.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	2.3%	41.6%	20.8%	—	14.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	10.0%	45.0%	30.9%	0.0%	18.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	20.0%	30.2%	26.9%	—	15.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	19.1%	27.3%	26.2%	14.1%	14.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	43.1%	31.2%	25.3%	—	20.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	33.1%	34.5%	29.3%	17.2%	28.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	42.5%	39.5%	21.3%	—	24.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	45.3%	43.7%	29.0%	26.3%	21.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	48.4%	32.4%	28.1%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	73.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	71.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	69.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	69.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗