KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 28 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

85%

64%

54%

15%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

ICONNO 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.60u · ICON −43.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	62.8%	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	20.8%	78.7%	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	86.3%	91.5%	24.6%	—	81.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	78.0%	92.9%	83.5%	—	80.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	84.5%	66.3%	—	73.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	54.8%	91.6%	77.0%	—	78.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	11.4%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	27.2%	92.6%	40.1%	—	69.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	35.8%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	42.2%	79.8%	21.4%	—	77.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	50.0%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	46.3%	43.6%	74.9%	—	69.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	38.8%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	21.8%	43.2%	63.4%	—	63.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	34.4%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	24.3%	37.8%	25.1%	—	62.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	17.6%	24.5%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	17.6%	13.1%	32.1%	—	65.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	26.7%	44.4%	2.2%	—	56.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	15.3%	16.0%	65.9%	9.0%	59.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	34.7%	18.3%	47.6%	—	61.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	21.7%	25.6%	41.3%	57.4%	65.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	43.6%	34.9%	42.3%	—	56.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	23.0%	31.9%	58.0%	15.7%	52.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	28.8%	9.8%	45.8%	—	55.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	31.8%	8.9%	40.0%	68.2%	54.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	12.8%	41.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	22.6%	4.4%	46.8%	66.8%	46.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	33.9%	7.3%	33.9%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	72.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	68.1°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗