KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 28 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

85%

64%

54%

15%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

ICONNO 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.60u · ICON −43.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:39+00:00	86.9%	51.3%	96.9%	89.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	86.9%	51.3%	96.9%	89.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.9%	63.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.9%	63.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.9%	63.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.9%	63.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.9%	63.1%	27.8%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	27.9%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	96.3%	63.1%	14.1%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	97.4%	63.1%	14.1%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	97.4%	63.1%	14.1%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00	79.5%	51.3%	97.4%	63.1%	14.1%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	87.5%	51.3%	97.4%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	87.5%	51.3%	97.4%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	87.5%	51.3%	97.4%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	87.5%	51.3%	97.4%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	87.5%	51.3%	97.4%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	87.5%	48.7%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	87.5%	48.7%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	87.5%	48.7%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	82.5%	48.7%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	82.5%	48.7%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	14.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	13.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	13.5%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	13.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	82.5%	55.3%	97.6%	62.4%	13.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	97.6%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	97.6%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	97.6%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	97.6%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	97.6%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	96.9%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	96.9%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	81.8%	55.3%	96.9%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	79.9%	55.3%	96.9%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	79.9%	55.3%	96.9%	75.9%	13.5%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.4%	54.3%	16.1%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.4%	54.3%	16.1%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.5%	54.3%	15.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:41+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.5%	54.3%	15.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.5%	54.3%	15.3%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	85.0%	63.5%	97.5%	54.3%	15.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	72.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	68.1°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗