KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

71%

36%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.45u · ICON −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	12.4%	67.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	77.0%	84.7%	14.9%	—	70.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	65.7%	86.5%	72.8%	—	69.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	9.0%	73.6%	51.5%	—	59.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	39.0%	83.7%	63.3%	—	65.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	5.3%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	15.2%	84.8%	25.1%	—	53.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	21.4%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	26.2%	65.4%	10.9%	—	62.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	32.6%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	28.9%	26.6%	58.2%	—	51.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	22.4%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	10.2%	25.5%	44.2%	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	18.3%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	11.3%	20.4%	11.8%	—	41.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	7.2%	11.1%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	7.0%	4.7%	15.5%	—	44.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	11.8%	24.0%	0.5%	—	34.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	5.4%	5.7%	43.0%	2.7%	36.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	16.0%	6.6%	25.3%	—	38.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	8.0%	10.0%	19.9%	33.1%	41.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	20.9%	15.0%	20.0%	—	31.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	7.9%	12.7%	31.9%	4.6%	27.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	10.4%	2.3%	21.1%	—	28.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	11.5%	1.9%	16.3%	40.0%	26.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	22.4%	2.9%	16.2%	—	22.4%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	6.1%	0.6%	19.2%	36.1%	19.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.7%	1.1%	10.7%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗