KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

71%

36%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

ICONNO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.45u · ICON −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	72.0%	40.1%	87.3%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	87.3%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	87.3%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	36.8%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	40.8%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	40.8%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	40.8%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	88.4%	60.9%	40.8%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	88.4%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	81.7%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T03:04:07+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	40.8%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.2%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	72.0%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	75.4%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	75.4%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	75.4%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	75.4%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	75.4%	40.0%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	75.4%	20.2%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	75.4%	20.2%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	75.4%	20.2%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	74.7%	20.2%	90.7%	79.8%	11.5%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	74.7%	20.5%	90.7%	79.8%	11.0%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	74.7%	26.5%	90.7%	79.8%	11.0%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	74.7%	26.5%	90.7%	79.8%	11.0%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	74.7%	26.5%	90.7%	79.8%	13.6%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	74.7%	26.5%	90.8%	79.8%	13.6%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	4.7%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	4.7%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	5.0%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	5.0%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	5.0%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	64.0%	29.8%	90.4%	58.6%	5.0%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	68.9%	29.8%	90.4%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	68.9%	29.8%	90.4%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	68.9%	29.8%	90.4%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	68.9%	29.8%	90.4%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	68.9%	29.8%	90.4%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	68.9%	30.3%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	68.9%	30.3%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	68.9%	30.3%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	70.6%	30.3%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	70.6%	30.3%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	92.0%	52.1%	5.0%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	90.2%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	90.2%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	90.2%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	90.2%	52.1%	6.0%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	90.2%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	90.2%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	90.2%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	90.2%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	68.9%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-28T01:57:09+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	70.6%	36.5%	91.1%	33.4%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗