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KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
59%
HRES
48%
WN2
39%
AIFS
26%
EPS
13%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 36.1¢Risks 36.10u
VS
EPSNO 63.9¢Risks 63.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.90u · EPS −63.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.6% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00ICON: 18.6% · 2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00ICON: 18.7% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:0009-21 10:5109-21 18:2609-22 01:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:0036.6%30.1%38.5%46.2%18.6%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:0036.6%20.9%38.5%46.2%18.6%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:0036.6%20.9%38.5%46.2%18.6%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:0036.6%20.9%38.5%46.2%18.6%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:0062.7%20.9%38.6%46.2%18.7%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:0062.7%20.9%38.6%46.2%18.7%
2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%18.7%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%18.7%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%59.3%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%59.3%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%59.3%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:0062.7%12.9%38.6%46.2%59.3%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:0047.1%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:0026.4%12.9%38.6%48.1%59.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON59%75.8°F9.8°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
National Blend57%74.0°F2.8°F2026-09-21 06:00Pending
IFS HRES48%73.2°F6.3°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%71.8°F5.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single26%70.0°F5.5°F2026-09-21 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble13%70.9°F2.3°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 21 · 10:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗