KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

48%

39%

26%

13%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.1¢Risks 36.10u

EPSNO 63.9¢Risks 63.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.90u · EPS −63.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	16.4%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.5%	28.8%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	37.6%	48.6%	1.8%	—	29.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	24.3%	50.0%	31.0%	—	27.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	0.6%	30.3%	13.4%	—	18.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.9%	41.3%	19.5%	—	21.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.2%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	1.1%	40.9%	2.7%	—	12.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	1.9%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.5%	17.8%	0.5%	—	16.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.6%	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	2.6%	2.2%	11.9%	—	9.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.5%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.3%	1.7%	5.4%	—	5.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.8%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	0.9%	0.3%	—	4.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	—	3.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.7%	0.0%	1.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%	—	1.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	1.0%	1.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	59%	75.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	74.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	73.2°F	6.3°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	71.8°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	70.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	70.9°F	2.3°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 21 · 10:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗