KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

59%

54%

31%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	62.5%	—	—	52.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	82.4%	—	—	63.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	8.8%	2.9%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	44.4%	68.9%	6.5%	—	58.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	42.7%	72.2%	44.9%	—	62.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	30.3%	78.4%	12.2%	—	56.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	33.7%	71.2%	9.0%	—	60.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	4.7%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	72.1%	76.8%	37.7%	—	59.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	36.6%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	54.4%	46.5%	25.5%	—	57.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	57.1%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	49.1%	68.6%	43.6%	—	61.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	52.8%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	29.6%	67.8%	19.0%	—	56.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	55.0%	66.5%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	49.0%	39.8%	55.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	51.1%	73.8%	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	42.4%	65.9%	19.0%	—	58.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	60.0%	81.7%	0.2%	—	55.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	54.6%	79.3%	14.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	45.2%	78.4%	16.0%	—	56.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	52.5%	87.6%	18.2%	65.8%	63.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	75.2%	81.8%	36.1%	—	61.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	63.2%	63.2%	24.0%	73.9%	66.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	71.2%	68.8%	62.3%	—	83.6%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	66.9%	73.2%	55.8%	74.4%	82.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	67.5%	78.7%	42.5%	—	74.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	62.4%	84.8%	36.1%	79.7%	69.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	53.3%	85.9%	26.7%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	74.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.8°F	2.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	69.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗