KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

59%

54%

31%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	73.9%	46.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	73.9%	46.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	73.9%	46.4%	50.7%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	70.9%	46.4%	50.7%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	70.9%	46.4%	50.7%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	87.8%	36.9%	70.9%	46.4%	50.7%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	88.7%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	88.7%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	88.7%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	88.7%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	88.7%	36.9%	70.9%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	88.7%	42.8%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	88.7%	42.8%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	88.7%	42.8%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	89.5%	42.8%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	89.5%	42.8%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	74.0%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	89.5%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	50.7%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	80.3%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	80.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	80.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	79.1%	54.1%	80.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	79.1%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	77.0%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	77.0%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	90.2%	25.7%	77.0%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	85.8%	25.7%	77.0%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	85.8%	25.7%	77.0%	80.0%	80.3%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	81.3%	74.4%	60.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	81.3%	74.4%	60.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	81.3%	74.4%	60.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	81.3%	74.4%	33.2%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	83.9%	74.4%	33.2%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	83.9%	74.4%	33.2%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00	81.7%	30.9%	83.9%	74.4%	33.2%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	86.9%	30.9%	83.9%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	86.9%	30.9%	83.9%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	86.9%	30.9%	83.9%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	86.9%	30.9%	83.9%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	86.9%	30.9%	83.9%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	86.9%	27.9%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	86.9%	27.9%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	86.9%	27.9%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	84.3%	27.9%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	84.3%	28.0%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	33.2%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	54.1%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	54.1%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	54.1%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	84.3%	31.1%	86.1%	62.2%	54.1%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	86.1%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	86.1%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	86.1%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	86.1%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	86.1%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	84.2%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	84.2%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	84.2%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	84.2%	58.8%	54.1%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	82.6%	31.1%	84.2%	58.8%	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	74.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.8°F	2.0°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	69.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗