KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

45%

37%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.5¢Risks 38.55u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · EPS −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	38.6%	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	60.9%	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	2.1%	0.5%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	19.9%	41.6%	1.3%	—	31.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	17.9%	44.2%	19.4%	—	34.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	10.0%	50.8%	2.7%	—	27.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	11.1%	40.5%	1.6%	—	29.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.6%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	40.1%	45.8%	12.5%	—	27.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	11.5%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	22.1%	16.7%	6.2%	—	24.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	23.5%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	17.2%	33.0%	13.9%	—	26.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	19.0%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	6.5%	30.4%	3.2%	—	21.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	19.0%	28.2%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	14.5%	9.8%	18.3%	—	15.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.0%	33.5%	—	—	20.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	9.9%	24.7%	2.4%	—	19.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	19.0%	41.0%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	14.7%	36.3%	1.2%	—	12.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	9.2%	33.6%	1.4%	—	14.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	11.8%	46.3%	1.6%	19.9%	18.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	26.9%	34.9%	4.9%	—	15.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	15.7%	15.7%	2.0%	24.0%	18.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	20.1%	18.2%	13.9%	—	33.8%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	15.4%	20.2%	9.5%	21.2%	30.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	14.4%	23.6%	4.4%	—	19.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	10.2%	29.0%	2.6%	22.6%	14.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	28.1%	1.1%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	76.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	70.2°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 23 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗