KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

45%

37%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.5¢Risks 38.55u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · EPS −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	38.7%	50.0%	39.2%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	38.7%	50.0%	39.2%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	38.7%	50.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	39.6%	50.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	39.6%	50.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	65.3%	3.5%	39.6%	50.0%	30.1%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	39.6%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	39.6%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	39.6%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	39.6%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	39.6%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	40.4%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	40.4%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	68.0%	3.5%	40.4%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	66.0%	3.5%	40.4%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	66.0%	3.5%	40.4%	24.5%	30.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	65.4%	6.8%	40.8%	27.8%	7.4%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	40.8%	27.8%	7.4%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	40.8%	27.8%	7.4%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	37.4%	27.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	37.4%	27.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	37.4%	27.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	65.4%	8.2%	37.4%	27.8%	11.2%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	37.4%	37.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	37.4%	37.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	37.4%	37.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	37.4%	37.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	67.2%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	68.9%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	68.9%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	68.9%	8.2%	45.3%	37.4%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	76.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	70.2°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 23 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗