KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

39%

32%

29%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

EPSNO 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.90u · EPS −67.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	27.7%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.9%	0.2%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	11.5%	28.6%	0.5%	—	19.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	10.0%	30.4%	10.9%	—	22.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	4.8%	35.8%	1.0%	—	16.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	5.3%	26.1%	0.5%	—	17.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.2%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	25.1%	30.0%	5.8%	—	15.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	5.1%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	11.3%	8.0%	2.4%	—	12.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	12.1%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	7.9%	18.4%	6.1%	—	13.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	8.8%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	2.3%	15.9%	1.0%	—	9.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	8.4%	14.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	5.8%	3.5%	7.8%	—	6.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.8%	16.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	3.3%	10.9%	0.6%	—	7.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	7.5%	21.4%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	5.1%	17.5%	0.2%	—	4.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	2.7%	15.2%	0.2%	—	4.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	3.5%	23.6%	0.3%	7.1%	6.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	10.3%	15.0%	1.1%	—	4.9%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	4.6%	4.6%	0.3%	8.4%	5.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.2%	5.4%	3.7%	—	13.2%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	4.0%	5.9%	2.1%	6.3%	10.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.4%	7.0%	0.7%	—	5.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.0%	8.9%	0.3%	6.1%	3.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	7.9%	0.1%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	77.8°F	5.6°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
ICON	39%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	73.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 22 · 07:58 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗