KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 23 · 02:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

39%

32%

29%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

EPSNO 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.90u · EPS −67.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	41.4%	4.0%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	41.4%	4.0%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	41.4%	4.0%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	41.4%	4.0%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	41.4%	7.2%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	41.4%	7.2%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	41.4%	7.2%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	41.4%	7.2%	27.0%	31.7%	15.5%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	42.2%	7.2%	27.0%	31.8%	15.6%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	42.2%	7.2%	27.0%	31.8%	15.6%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	15.6%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	15.6%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	42.2%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	27.0%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	28.8%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	28.8%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	28.8%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	57.1%	5.0%	28.8%	31.8%	39.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	59.2%	5.0%	28.8%	31.8%	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	77.8°F	5.6°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
ICON	39%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	73.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 22 · 07:58 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗