KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

68%

60%

57%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

HRESNO 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.90u · HRES −23.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	10.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	86.7%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	58.7%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	89.6%	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	7.5%	96.5%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	77.0%	10.5%	6.7%	—	86.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	93.6%	70.9%	37.8%	—	83.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	71.7%	91.3%	83.1%	—	78.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	42.1%	11.5%	22.4%	—	80.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	11.8%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	48.3%	90.3%	54.2%	—	69.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	63.4%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	40.5%	1.7%	26.9%	—	80.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	58.9%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	49.1%	72.6%	87.6%	—	79.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	77.6%	90.4%	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	83.5%	92.5%	85.3%	—	76.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	63.7%	94.6%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	74.9%	94.5%	75.7%	—	89.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	81.7%	94.5%	—	—	92.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	89.6%	95.0%	63.9%	4.2%	91.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	85.9%	95.2%	0.0%	—	91.3%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	90.0%	93.2%	52.3%	95.8%	92.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	79.2%	93.4%	67.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	94.8%	91.5%	78.3%	84.1%	97.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	90.2%	94.0%	84.2%	—	97.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	81.8%	90.5%	85.1%	88.7%	98.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	79.9%	93.8%	82.7%	—	96.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	89.2%	92.2%	88.5%	88.5%	95.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	93.5%	89.5%	96.8%	—	93.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	89.8%	89.8%	87.5%	83.9%	93.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	90.1%	87.7%	81.9%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	71.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗