KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

68%

60%

57%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

HRESNO 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.90u · HRES −23.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:40+00:00	90.6%	69.6%	92.0%	89.4%	63.4%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	90.6%	69.6%	92.0%	89.4%	63.4%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.0%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.0%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.0%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.0%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.0%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	63.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	92.3%	69.7%	51.7%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	93.6%	69.7%	51.7%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	93.6%	69.7%	51.7%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00	98.8%	69.6%	93.6%	69.7%	51.7%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	93.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	93.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	93.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	93.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	98.4%	69.6%	93.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	98.4%	65.8%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	98.4%	65.8%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	98.4%	65.8%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	97.9%	65.8%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	97.9%	65.5%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	51.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	60.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	60.0%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	60.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	97.9%	67.6%	92.6%	50.8%	60.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	92.6%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	92.6%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	92.6%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	92.6%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	92.6%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	89.8%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	89.8%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	97.2%	67.6%	89.8%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	95.1%	67.6%	89.8%	57.1%	60.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	95.1%	67.6%	89.8%	57.1%	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	78.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	72.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	71.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗