KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

82%

50%

48%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.2¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.8¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	6.0%	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	79.0%	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	46.2%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	3.8%	93.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	65.1%	5.4%	3.2%	—	77.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	87.6%	57.3%	24.9%	—	73.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	57.6%	83.5%	71.7%	—	65.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	27.4%	5.5%	12.3%	—	67.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	5.5%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	32.2%	81.0%	37.7%	—	53.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	46.6%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	24.8%	0.5%	14.6%	—	66.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	31.4%	55.5%	75.6%	—	63.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	61.2%	79.7%	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	68.7%	82.9%	71.3%	—	58.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	44.0%	86.5%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	56.1%	86.1%	57.2%	—	77.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	64.5%	85.6%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	76.2%	86.3%	42.4%	1.1%	78.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	69.5%	86.5%	0.0%	—	78.6%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	75.8%	81.7%	30.0%	87.3%	81.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	58.4%	81.7%	44.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	84.1%	77.3%	56.2%	64.6%	92.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	74.1%	81.8%	63.9%	—	90.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	59.3%	73.9%	64.4%	70.5%	92.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	55.6%	79.9%	59.7%	—	85.3%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	69.5%	75.5%	68.2%	68.2%	83.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	77.6%	68.9%	86.4%	—	76.4%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	68.3%	68.3%	63.9%	57.9%	77.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	67.6%	63.0%	53.3%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	78.8°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	76.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
ICON	50%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	71.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗