KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

82%

50%

48%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.2¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.8¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:08+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	82.8%	82.8%	72.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	82.8%	82.8%	72.3%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	82.8%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	77.3%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	77.3%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	77.3%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	77.3%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	77.3%	50.0%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	77.3%	44.3%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	77.3%	44.3%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	77.3%	44.3%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	81.8%	44.3%	80.5%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	81.9%	44.3%	79.9%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	81.9%	47.7%	79.9%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	81.9%	47.7%	79.9%	82.8%	44.6%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	81.9%	47.7%	79.9%	82.8%	50.0%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	81.9%	47.7%	82.3%	82.8%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	78.8°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	76.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
ICON	50%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	71.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗