KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

59%

52%

36%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

EPSNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.00u · EPS −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	66.0%	29.9%	71.7%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	66.0%	29.6%	71.7%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	66.0%	29.6%	71.7%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	66.0%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	66.0%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	66.0%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	85.8%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	62.9%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	62.9%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	69.4%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	69.4%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	40.4%	29.6%	69.4%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	47.0%	29.6%	69.4%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	47.0%	29.6%	69.4%	74.1%	61.9%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	60.0%	26.9%	27.8%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	60.0%	26.9%	27.8%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	60.0%	26.9%	55.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	63.9%	26.9%	55.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	63.9%	26.9%	55.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	78.7%	28.8%	63.9%	26.9%	55.1%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	63.9%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	63.9%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	63.9%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	63.9%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	86.9%	28.8%	63.9%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	86.9%	19.6%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	86.9%	19.6%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	86.9%	19.6%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	91.5%	19.7%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	91.5%	19.7%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	62.7%	30.5%	55.1%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	59.6%	30.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	59.6%	30.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	59.6%	30.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	59.6%	30.5%	40.9%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	59.6%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	59.6%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	59.6%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	59.6%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	92.2%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	63.8%	68.8%	40.9%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	64.8%	68.8%	52.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:41+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	64.8%	68.8%	52.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	64.8%	68.8%	52.3%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	91.5%	22.2%	64.8%	68.8%	52.3%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	89.4%	22.2%	64.8%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	89.4%	22.2%	64.8%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	89.4%	22.2%	64.8%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	89.4%	22.2%	64.8%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	89.4%	35.8%	58.9%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	89.4%	35.8%	58.9%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	89.4%	35.8%	58.9%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	89.4%	35.8%	58.9%	78.1%	52.3%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	90.2%	35.8%	58.9%	78.2%	52.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	79.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	75.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
ICON	52%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.3°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗