KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

59%

52%

36%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

EPSNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.00u · EPS −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	69.2%	—	—	42.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	1.7%	87.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	51.4%	2.5%	1.4%	—	65.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	78.5%	42.7%	14.8%	—	60.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	42.4%	72.4%	57.6%	—	50.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	15.9%	2.3%	5.9%	—	52.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	2.2%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	18.9%	67.8%	23.2%	—	36.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	30.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	13.1%	0.1%	6.8%	—	49.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	24.9%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	17.2%	37.3%	59.1%	—	45.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	42.5%	63.9%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	67.8%	52.9%	—	39.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	25.7%	72.6%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	35.9%	71.5%	36.9%	—	59.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	43.7%	70.2%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	56.5%	70.8%	23.0%	0.2%	59.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	47.8%	70.4%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	54.6%	62.6%	13.4%	71.0%	61.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	34.7%	61.9%	22.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	64.6%	55.0%	32.0%	40.1%	78.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	60.2%	38.5%	—	75.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	33.1%	48.7%	38.1%	44.6%	78.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	28.8%	55.6%	32.5%	—	63.7%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	41.4%	48.5%	40.0%	40.0%	60.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	39.5%	63.3%	—	48.5%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	37.6%	37.6%	33.1%	27.6%	48.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	35.5%	30.9%	22.8%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	79.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	75.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
ICON	52%	74.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.3°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗