KPIT / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

86%

76%

62%

36%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

EPSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.85u · EPS −34.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	3.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	8.8%	11.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	71.4%	2.3%	—	30.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	16.5%	52.2%	12.4%	—	39.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	49.2%	13.8%	25.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	53.2%	17.9%	33.0%	—	32.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	0.3%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	4.1%	3.9%	26.5%	—	36.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	26.7%	50.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	57.0%	60.4%	47.4%	—	50.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	45.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	60.0%	65.3%	50.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	55.7%	67.4%	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	65.2%	67.8%	33.0%	—	56.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	64.7%	68.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	59.2%	65.1%	40.8%	—	64.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	25.3%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	24.7%	56.5%	51.1%	—	33.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	24.9%	36.7%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	39.6%	61.5%	50.0%	39.6%	53.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	31.4%	51.2%	41.6%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	24.6%	48.8%	38.9%	32.0%	68.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	65.1%	53.9%	48.7%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	79.0%	51.3%	50.0%	29.5%	60.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	68.8%	51.4%	48.6%	—	68.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	78.8%	54.3%	50.0%	48.5%	70.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	74.0%	54.5%	47.0%	—	64.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	73.7%	62.4%	50.0%	60.9%	65.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	85.9%	69.0%	59.8%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	86.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
National Blend	92%	81.1°F	1.1°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	80.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	78.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261001-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗