KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

65%

53%

52%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

HRESNO 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.55u · HRES −25.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	95.6%	26.0%	90.2%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	95.6%	26.0%	90.2%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	95.6%	26.0%	90.2%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	95.6%	26.0%	67.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	89.1%	26.0%	67.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	89.1%	26.0%	67.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	42.9%	78.2%	89.1%	26.0%	67.8%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	89.1%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	89.1%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	89.1%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	89.1%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	89.1%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	93.6%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	93.6%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	93.6%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	89.2%	60.8%	93.6%	39.3%	67.8%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	99.4%	84.0%	99.4%	84.0%	63.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	99.4%	84.0%	99.6%	84.0%	63.1%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	99.4%	84.0%	99.6%	84.0%	63.1%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	99.4%	84.0%	99.6%	84.0%	63.1%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	94.1%	84.0%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	94.1%	84.0%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	94.1%	84.0%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	94.1%	84.0%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	94.1%	84.0%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	94.1%	81.2%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	94.1%	81.2%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	94.1%	81.2%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	87.4%	81.2%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	87.5%	81.2%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	87.5%	81.8%	99.6%	58.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	53.8%	94.4%	97.7%	67.8%	39.9%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	53.8%	94.4%	97.7%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	53.8%	94.4%	94.5%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	53.8%	94.4%	94.5%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	53.8%	94.4%	94.5%	67.8%	53.4%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.5%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.5%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.5%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.5%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.5%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	92.0%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.8%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.8%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	56.7%	94.4%	94.8%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	66.3%	94.4%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	66.3%	94.4%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	66.3%	94.4%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	66.3%	94.4%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	66.3%	94.4%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	66.3%	96.1%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	66.3%	96.1%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	66.3%	96.1%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T13:44:39+00:00	67.2%	96.1%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	67.2%	96.1%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.8%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.5%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.5%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	67.2%	96.8%	94.5%	62.6%	53.4%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	94.5%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	94.5%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	94.5%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	94.5%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	94.5%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	93.8%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	93.8%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	66.3%	96.8%	93.8%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	65.4%	96.8%	93.8%	52.1%	53.4%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	65.4%	96.8%	93.8%	52.1%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗