KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

65%

53%

52%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

HRESNO 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.55u · HRES −25.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	21.1%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	96.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	14.7%	96.5%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	93.7%	97.8%	13.0%	—	61.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	50.7%	94.1%	55.1%	—	64.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	23.9%	15.5%	16.9%	—	60.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	58.7%	16.9%	11.1%	—	64.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	51.6%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	53.3%	29.3%	45.0%	—	37.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	42.4%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	52.6%	50.9%	31.4%	—	64.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	55.4%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	51.8%	89.8%	66.1%	—	92.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	30.9%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	57.7%	98.5%	56.8%	—	76.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	58.0%	84.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	45.9%	33.0%	33.0%	47.9%	53.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	45.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	44.5%	19.0%	22.1%	42.4%	72.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	54.5%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	58.1%	40.8%	16.0%	72.0%	44.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	53.6%	11.9%	19.1%	—	58.4%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	59.9%	15.1%	21.7%	70.2%	48.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	60.2%	18.2%	53.9%	—	56.4%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	64.4%	12.0%	15.7%	69.3%	34.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	68.8%	14.7%	18.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	62.8%	17.2%	22.2%	72.0%	45.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	45.5%	12.8%	26.0%	—	39.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	9.6%	30.3%	72.4%	42.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	77.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗