KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 30 · 15:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

82%

49%

35%

20%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.55u · ICON −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	93.3%	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	8.2%	93.0%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	88.1%	95.1%	6.9%	—	47.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	36.4%	88.3%	40.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	13.8%	8.1%	9.0%	—	45.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	42.9%	8.7%	5.3%	—	49.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	35.6%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	36.9%	16.8%	29.3%	—	23.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	26.7%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	35.4%	33.8%	17.8%	—	47.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	37.6%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	33.9%	79.1%	48.2%	—	84.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	16.5%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	38.5%	95.4%	37.6%	—	59.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	38.2%	69.2%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	26.8%	17.0%	17.0%	28.5%	33.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	26.2%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	24.7%	7.7%	9.4%	23.0%	52.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	32.6%	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	35.2%	20.7%	5.7%	50.0%	23.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	30.4%	3.7%	7.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	35.4%	4.9%	8.0%	46.3%	25.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	34.9%	6.0%	29.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	38.1%	3.2%	4.6%	43.3%	14.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	41.7%	4.0%	5.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	34.5%	4.7%	6.8%	44.2%	20.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	19.2%	2.9%	8.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	1.8%	9.6%	42.1%	16.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	79.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	77.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	72.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗