KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 30 · 15:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

82%

49%

35%

20%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.55u · ICON −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	97.1%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	97.1%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	97.1%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	97.1%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	97.1%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	90.2%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	90.2%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	79.6%	64.8%	90.2%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	29.5%	64.8%	90.2%	17.0%	86.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	92.4%	25.2%	20.5%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	25.2%	20.5%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	25.2%	20.5%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	25.2%	20.5%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	34.8%	67.1%	93.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T10:34:06+00:00	46.2%	67.1%	93.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	46.2%	84.0%	92.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	46.2%	84.0%	92.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	46.2%	84.0%	92.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	35.0%	84.0%	92.5%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	35.0%	84.0%	92.4%	49.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	35.0%	82.3%	92.4%	49.0%	20.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	79.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	77.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	72.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗