KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 02 · 04:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

26%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.0¢Risks 16.95u

ICONNO 83.0¢Risks 83.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.05u · ICON −83.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	75.4%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	1.3%	73.5%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	61.8%	78.1%	0.9%	—	17.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	10.3%	60.8%	12.4%	—	17.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	0.9%	1.1%	—	14.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.9%	0.9%	0.4%	—	15.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.2%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	8.3%	2.2%	5.6%	—	3.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	4.5%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	7.0%	6.5%	2.2%	—	12.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	7.5%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	5.8%	36.4%	11.5%	—	43.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	1.5%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	6.5%	67.8%	6.2%	—	16.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	6.0%	22.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.8%	1.2%	1.2%	3.2%	4.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.5%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.0%	0.3%	0.4%	1.7%	9.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.3%	1.1%	0.1%	7.2%	1.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.6%	0.1%	0.1%	4.9%	1.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	3.2%	0.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	0.1%	2.5%	0.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.5%	0.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	77.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	73.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗