KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

56%

53%

38%

25%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

EPSNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.75u · EPS −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	70.2%	—	—	77.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	92.4%	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	99.4%	—	—	89.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	96.0%	—	—	79.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	25.4%	43.3%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	13.7%	98.0%	10.2%	—	63.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	14.4%	20.4%	27.2%	—	62.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	8.7%	5.0%	23.9%	—	62.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	24.8%	14.0%	25.5%	—	70.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	0.4%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	25.1%	28.6%	33.8%	—	60.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	9.2%	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	34.6%	55.2%	43.0%	—	46.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	42.9%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.7%	—	30.6%	15.4%	38.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	38.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	34.8%	28.7%	26.3%	—	35.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	42.0%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	33.0%	40.8%	31.2%	0.2%	33.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	29.8%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	38.2%	31.1%	31.1%	2.4%	38.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	1.6%	30.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	1.5%	41.9%	35.2%	15.3%	36.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	0.7%	39.3%	34.7%	—	33.6%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	30.9%	38.9%	23.6%	19.9%	34.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	24.8%	41.0%	28.0%	—	20.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	34.3%	55.4%	38.1%	17.3%	42.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	30.0%	52.8%	36.3%	—	36.3%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	33.1%	50.0%	30.5%	21.2%	40.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	31.1%	45.5%	27.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	19.2%	42.1%	22.6%	13.4%	29.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	33.9%	33.9%	20.3%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	68.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.9°F	2.1°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	66.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	65.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗