KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

ICONNO 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.33u · ICON −46.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	34.6%	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	73.0%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	41.6%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	1.4%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	47.2%	0.0%	—	3.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	2.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	1.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	13%	70.2°F	8.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	74.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	66.6°F	7.5°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	68.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	1%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗