KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

87%

85%

73%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

ICONNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.45u · ICON −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	36.0%	68.6%	88.7%	28.6%	34.5%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	36.0%	68.6%	88.7%	28.6%	34.5%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	36.0%	68.6%	88.7%	28.6%	34.5%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	34.6%	68.6%	88.7%	28.0%	34.5%
2026-09-27T14:40:01+00:00	34.6%	68.6%	88.7%	28.0%	34.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	88.7%	28.0%	34.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	88.7%	28.0%	34.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	94.8%	28.0%	76.6%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	94.8%	28.0%	76.6%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	94.8%	28.0%	76.6%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	34.6%	70.8%	94.8%	28.0%	76.6%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	94.8%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	94.8%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	94.8%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	94.8%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	82.0%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	87.9%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	87.9%	70.8%	98.3%	93.6%	76.6%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	56.0%	73.2%	98.6%	90.3%	44.2%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.6%	90.3%	44.2%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.6%	90.3%	44.2%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.7%	90.3%	33.1%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.7%	90.3%	33.1%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.7%	90.3%	33.1%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	56.0%	74.9%	98.7%	90.3%	33.1%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.7%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.7%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.7%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.7%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	60.4%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	62.6%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	62.6%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	62.6%	74.9%	98.1%	87.7%	33.1%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	85.5%	72.7%	96.8%	90.5%	87.9%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	85.5%	72.7%	96.8%	90.5%	41.1%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	85.5%	72.7%	92.0%	90.5%	41.1%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	85.5%	72.7%	92.0%	90.5%	41.1%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	85.5%	72.7%	92.0%	90.5%	41.1%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	92.0%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	92.0%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	92.0%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	92.0%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	92.0%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	97.8%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	96.0%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	96.0%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	96.0%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	96.0%	72.7%	84.7%	86.8%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	74.1°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	72.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	69.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	67.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	66.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
ICON	41%	64.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 27 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗