KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

87%

85%

73%

41%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

ICONNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.45u · ICON −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	72.9%	—	—	75.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	24.9%	—	—	65.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	91.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	9.0%	17.6%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	70.8%	44.4%	9.3%	—	77.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	22.6%	49.3%	37.1%	—	81.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	12.2%	20.5%	51.5%	—	75.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	81.6%	81.1%	20.1%	—	70.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	47.5%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	22.5%	—	36.1%	69.2%	70.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	33.4%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	66.2%	89.9%	94.8%	—	81.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	15.0%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	39.1%	84.5%	87.6%	—	74.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	17.1%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	9.4%	70.4%	84.7%	—	82.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	88.7%	94.5%	59.2%	91.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	97.0%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	81.7%	91.0%	0.3%	92.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	87.1%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	72.0%	95.5%	—	94.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	94.5%	96.5%	93.8%	—	41.6%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	93.7%	97.4%	94.5%	96.3%	97.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	95.4%	96.5%	97.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	95.4%	94.3%	94.7%	96.5%	98.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	98.4%	96.3%	96.0%	—	97.5%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	96.3%	96.3%	95.6%	98.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	98.5%	95.2%	95.9%	—	97.3%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	98.4%	95.9%	94.3%	97.1%	98.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	98.4%	97.4%	96.9%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	74.1°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	72.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	69.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	67.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	66.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
ICON	41%	64.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 27 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗