KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

93%

69%

35%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

ICONNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · ICON −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	72.2%	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	62.0%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	16.1%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	56.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	4.7%	10.2%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	57.7%	31.1%	4.7%	—	65.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	13.2%	35.0%	24.3%	—	70.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	6.0%	11.4%	36.5%	—	62.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	69.2%	68.4%	10.8%	—	55.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	31.9%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	12.0%	—	21.9%	53.3%	54.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	19.6%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	49.1%	79.8%	88.2%	—	67.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	6.9%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	23.0%	71.0%	75.6%	—	58.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	7.7%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	3.5%	51.9%	70.4%	—	67.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	75.7%	86.1%	38.8%	79.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	91.2%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	63.9%	78.7%	0.1%	81.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	71.4%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	50.0%	86.6%	—	84.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	84.0%	88.6%	82.5%	—	20.8%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	81.8%	90.5%	83.4%	87.6%	92.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	85.0%	87.8%	89.1%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	84.3%	81.8%	82.7%	87.4%	91.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	92.4%	86.1%	85.3%	—	89.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	92.7%	85.4%	85.4%	83.7%	92.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	92.0%	81.9%	83.8%	—	88.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	91.1%	82.9%	78.6%	86.6%	89.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	90.8%	86.9%	85.0%	—	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	73.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗