KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

90%

74%

61%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.6¢Risks 79.60u

EPSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.40u · EPS −20.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	67.0%	—	—	79.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	80.7%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	3.2%	7.5%	—	—	48.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	50.7%	25.2%	3.2%	—	59.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	9.6%	28.5%	18.9%	—	63.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	4.1%	8.1%	29.6%	—	54.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	61.8%	61.0%	7.5%	—	47.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	25.0%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	8.3%	—	16.2%	45.0%	45.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	14.2%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	40.5%	73.1%	83.3%	—	59.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	4.3%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	62.7%	67.8%	—	49.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	4.8%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	2.0%	42.3%	61.5%	—	57.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	67.0%	79.5%	29.4%	71.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	86.2%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	53.3%	69.9%	0.0%	73.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	61.1%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	38.5%	79.3%	—	76.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	75.6%	81.7%	73.7%	—	13.2%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	72.4%	84.1%	74.4%	80.1%	86.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	76.2%	80.0%	81.8%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	74.9%	71.6%	72.7%	79.0%	85.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	86.1%	76.8%	75.8%	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	86.2%	75.5%	75.5%	73.2%	85.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	84.7%	70.2%	72.8%	—	78.7%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	82.9%	71.0%	65.4%	76.2%	80.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	81.9%	75.9%	73.3%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	75.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	73.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	73.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗