KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

90%

90%

74%

61%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.6¢Risks 79.60u

EPSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.40u · EPS −20.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	70.2%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	70.2%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	70.2%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	78.3%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	78.3%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	78.8%	50.0%	78.3%	26.8%	27.7%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	78.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	78.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	78.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	78.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	78.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	77.6%	46.7%	81.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	77.6%	46.7%	81.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	77.6%	46.7%	81.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	74.8%	46.7%	81.3%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	74.8%	46.7%	81.2%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	81.2%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	81.2%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	81.2%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	82.0%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	82.0%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	74.8%	48.9%	82.0%	84.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	82.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	82.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	82.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	82.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	82.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	79.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	79.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	71.7%	48.9%	79.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	86.5%	48.9%	79.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	86.5%	48.9%	79.0%	85.2%	27.7%
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	89.5%	59.8%	97.8%	95.1%	27.7%
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	97.8%	95.1%	27.7%
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	97.8%	95.1%	27.7%
2026-10-02T17:00:06+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	89.5%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.9%	95.1%	74.3%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	87.6%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	90.3%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	90.3%	60.8%	98.4%	89.8%	74.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	75.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	73.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	73.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗