KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	0.3%	6.1%	14.7%	0.4%	27.3%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	0.3%	6.1%	14.7%	0.4%	27.3%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	0.3%	6.1%	14.7%	0.4%	27.3%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	0.3%	6.1%	14.7%	0.4%	27.3%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	14.7%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	14.7%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	14.7%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	14.7%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	29.0%	30.2%	27.3%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	55.7%	30.2%	2.1%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	55.7%	30.2%	2.1%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	55.7%	30.2%	2.1%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	12.1%	6.1%	55.7%	30.2%	2.1%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	55.7%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	55.7%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	55.7%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	55.7%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	1.8%	5.3%	25.4%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	1.8%	5.3%	25.4%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	1.8%	5.3%	25.4%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	1.8%	5.3%	25.4%	25.4%	2.1%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	1.1%	5.3%	25.4%	25.3%	2.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	1.1%	5.3%	25.4%	25.3%	2.1%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	25.4%	25.3%	2.1%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	25.4%	25.3%	2.1%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	26.1%	25.3%	1.0%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	26.1%	25.3%	1.0%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	26.1%	25.3%	1.0%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	1.1%	5.9%	26.1%	25.3%	1.0%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	26.1%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	26.1%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	26.1%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	26.1%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	1.4%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	21.4%	21.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	15.5%	21.2%	14.3%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	15.5%	21.2%	14.3%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	1.7%	5.9%	15.5%	21.2%	14.3%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	19.2%	5.9%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	19.2%	0.3%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	19.2%	0.3%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	19.2%	0.3%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	5.7%	0.3%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	5.6%	0.2%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	5.6%	0.2%	15.5%	17.6%	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	73.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	72.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 27 · 16:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗