KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	15.2%	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	22.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	6.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%	0.3%	—	6.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	—	3.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	4.5%	4.3%	0.0%	—	2.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%	1.3%	1.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	0.1%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.7%	5.7%	10.9%	—	2.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.0%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	2.3%	3.2%	—	1.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.4%	1.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.6%	4.0%	0.1%	2.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.4%	1.3%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	1.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	1.1%	2.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	0.3%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	73.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	72.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 27 · 16:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗