KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

94%

89%

76%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 87.4¢Risks 87.40u

ICONNO 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.60u · ICON −12.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	85.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	92.7%	—	—	75.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	93.2%	—	—	84.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	53.1%	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	85.2%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	40.0%	83.3%	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	48.6%	68.9%	58.4%	—	87.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	88.3%	72.2%	86.1%	—	87.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	44.7%	—	32.3%	48.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	64.1%	55.6%	83.2%	—	84.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	58.9%	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	64.7%	76.2%	63.9%	—	90.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	60.2%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	71.6%	56.1%	72.4%	—	80.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	81.6%	62.7%	79.7%	77.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	72.9%	77.5%	—	81.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	81.7%	74.9%	—	81.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	81.0%	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	77.8%	89.6%	71.8%	—	77.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	83.9%	90.3%	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	87.9%	84.0%	84.7%	74.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	87.4%	83.3%	77.5%	—	84.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	91.5%	88.8%	83.4%	88.2%	90.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	89.1%	88.5%	80.9%	—	8.2%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	93.9%	93.0%	86.6%	88.7%	93.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	92.4%	95.3%	84.5%	—	95.7%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	95.3%	97.7%	91.1%	96.8%	96.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	95.6%	98.7%	93.5%	—	61.9%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	95.9%	99.3%	93.4%	97.6%	97.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	97.7%	99.4%	93.7%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	67.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	67.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	66.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	63.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	60.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗